The Next Irrigation Frontier: More Land or More Water?

 

Kenya’s ambition to transform agriculture and secure national food supplies is no longer a matter of theory but a matter of urgent policy action. With food production increasingly constrained by climate variability, erratic rainfall, and rising demand, the country is pushing to expand irrigated agriculture and modernise its water management systems. But as the State Department for Irrigation leads this push, the question arises not just how much more land can be irrigated, but how much water is optimised and used effectively. This is the core of the next irrigation frontier: the balance between expanding land under irrigation and ensuring that every drop of water delivers maximum productive value.

Expanding Irrigated Land: Ambition Meets Reality

Kenya’s National Irrigation Sector Investment Plan (NISIP) provides the framework for long-term growth in irrigation. The plan seeks to bring an additional one million acres under irrigation by 2030, building on about 747,000 acres currently irrigated and aligned with broader goals of climate resilience and food security.

This ambition reflects a clear recognition by policymakers, including Irrigation PS Ephantus Kimotho, that unlocking agricultural potential requires both infrastructure and institutional readiness. Under NISIP, strategies range from farmer-led irrigation development to revitalising existing public schemes and integrating private sector participation.

Expansion of irrigated acreage is not just a number on a page. It affects livelihoods, regional food supply, and national economic stability. For example, larger schemes like Mwea have already demonstrated how irrigation expansion can significantly boost production and income. Rice production at Mwea has surged markedly with improved water supply and expanded irrigated land, benefiting thousands of farmers and contributing millions of shillings into local economies.

Yet the raw ambition to simply add hectares of irrigated land encounters real constraints: water availability, competing demands for domestic and industrial use, and ecological limits. It also raises the strategic question at the heart of Kenya’s irrigation challenge: should priority be placed on spreading irrigation infrastructure over larger tracts, or on increasing the efficiency with which water is used across both existing and new systems?

The Water Efficiency Imperative

Globally, irrigated agriculture produces nearly 40 percent of the world’s food from less than 20 percent of cultivated land. This disparity highlights how irrigation, properly managed, can produce far more output per unit of land compared with rain-fed systems.

However, raw land expansion without corresponding improvements in water use efficiency can undermine sustainability. Water productivity ,defined as the amount of crop produced per unit of water used , matters as much as, if not more than, the total land under irrigation. In the Ahero Irrigation Scheme in Kenya, studies have shown that water productivity for rice under traditional flood irrigation regimes can be low, with significant losses due to conveyance inefficiencies and application methods. Improvements such as canal lining, better water application techniques, and strengthened water users’ associations are essential to boost this productivity.

In many parts of the world, irrigation systems that merely add hectares without addressing water efficiency have stagnated. Water saved at one point in a system can be redistributed and ultimately consumed elsewhere, leading to little net reduction in overall water demand. This “efficiency paradox” underscores the need to rethink irrigation expansion through the lens of water productivity and value per cubic metre, not simply water delivered per hectare.

Water Resources: Physical Potential vs Economic Water Shortages

Kenya is not short of water potential. National plans point to the possibility of irrigating millions of acres using surface water, groundwater, and water harvesting. Yet the real constraint is not the physical lack of water, but rather economic water scarcity, the gap between water that is physically available and the investment needed to harness it sustainably.

Under the National Water Master Plan and NISIP, Kenya’s irrigation strategy is grounded in the recognition that storage and efficient distribution are essential. Yet building storage infrastructure alone, dams, pans, and reservoirs, does not automatically enhance water productivity. Without targeted efforts to manage distribution, monitor usage, and optimise crops relative to water use, more stored water could simply lead to greater consumption without proportionate increases in output or resilience.

This is where leadership matters. A measured and strategic push towards irrigation must pair land expansion targets with frameworks that prioritise water-efficient technologies, data-driven scheduling, and policy instruments that reward productivity gains rather than raw expansion. This is a shift that Irrigation PS Ephantus Kimotho has consistently articulated in his support for plans that mobilise resources not just for new land but for systemic optimisation.

Technologies and Practices for the Water Frontier

Investment in modern irrigation technologies, such as drip and micro-irrigation, soil moisture sensors, and smart scheduling, can significantly improve how water is deployed on farms. Solar-powered irrigation systems are another innovation gaining traction in Kenya, reducing dependence on costly diesel while enhancing reliability. Partnerships between research institutions and private sector players are already advancing these solutions, emphasising sustainable use of both surface and groundwater.

These technologies not only increase water productivity but also open up opportunities for crop intensification and diversification, making irrigation systems more resilient to climatic variability. Precision irrigation, for instance, ensures that water is delivered at optimal times and volumes, reducing waste while boosting yields. This is particularly important as Kenya seeks to support 1 million additional acres under irrigation by 2030, a target set under the National Irrigation Sector Investment Plan.

Another key element of enhancing water productivity is institutional capacity. Strengthening Irrigation Water Users Associations, improving water accounting systems, and adopting data-driven planning are not glamorous elements of project delivery, but they are critical to ensuring that irrigation infrastructure performs as intended. The recent MoU with the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) to improve tariff frameworks and data systems reflects this emphasis on technical foundations.

A Balanced Strategy for the Future

Ultimately, the question of whether Kenya needs “more land or more water” for irrigation misses the deeper point: the country needs both, coupled with greater efficiency in how water translates into crop output. Simply adding acreage without addressing the underlying inefficiencies in water use risks locking in unsustainable practices that could undermine long-term food security and environmental resilience.

Kenya’s irrigation agenda is comprehensive not only in its acreage targets but in its layered approach, seeking to expand land under irrigation while simultaneously modernising management and technology. This balanced focus reflects an understanding that future food systems must be both scale-driven and resource-conscious.

The real frontier in irrigation, therefore, lies at this intersection: developing land at scale and wringing the maximum productive value from every litre of water used. Leadership that recognises this dual necessity and embeds it into planning, financing, and implementation will be the defining force in Kenya’s agricultural transformation in the years ahead.

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Article by Victor Patience Oyuko. To support the Blog, Mpesa 0708883777